Saturday, August 05, 2006

What About the Day After, Syria and Iran

A lot of talk and excitement since last night...the French and Americans have come to agreement and written a draft UN cease-fireproposal for Israel's northern front of the War on Terror. Already Israel is dropping its demand for an immediate replacement of UNIFL. The Lebanon government is not willing to agree to the proposed initiative (as if it has any say in Hezbollahstan). This isn't how I usually write, but it fits the blogosphere, so I'll make a few quick points.

1)Cease-fires are very bad things when agreed upon prematurely. I'm tired of calls for peace (for the sake of not seeing pictures on television anymore). We're all lucky that those on the American left weren't around when we had to fight Nazis.

2) Any cease-fire previous to the decimation Hezbollah's military capacity will be a mistake. The same applies for any cease-fire without the unconditional release of the two kidnapped Israeli prisoners. Now, I'm realistic about this. I understand how things work here and know that we will most likely have to give up terrorist prisoners for them. We need to let them know that if they even look at a picture of Nasrallah or any other terrorist leader or think about reengaging Israel they will be killed.

3) Who will be securing Lebanon's border with Syria? Who will be securing its waters? I don't trust the Lebanese to do it, not after the support offered Hezbollah from within the government.

4) Will the UN demand anything of Syria and Iran? Whatever the UN does, it doesn't matter. Hezbollah must not be rearmed. The next Iranian nuke deadline could provide a great opportunity for the Iranians to order Hezbollah to fire a few more missiles into Israel and jumpstart the war.

5) All of this will be replayed, refought, unless the U.S. and others take on Iran - soon. Not taking on Iran and/or a premature exit from Iraq will mean more, and more horrible, war later.

6) No aid should be granted Lebanon until Hezbollah is removed from the government and all known associates are prohibited from engaging in political life. The Lebanese educational system must be under non-UN, international, U.S.-led supervision to ensure that it does not become a Palestinian-like, hate-filled curriculum that encourages the creation of new terrorists.

If there is a cease-fire terrorists around the globe will only be encouraged. At least we'll have some time to make the bomb shelters a bit more comfortable before the next round.


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